Ringing the Bell and Ringing the Bookie

Well the markets are up for Bells and the odds are looking fairly tight amongst the top guys, not unusual although this time the odds are higher than normal. This is primarily because of Bede Durbidge's consistency. Bookies have set their markets with Bede's best odds being  11.00, this is a big leap in from late teens, through to 30's that the bookies tagged him with last year.

The good news in Bede being pushed in is that perennial shorties, Slats, Fanning, Parko, TB and Irons have drifted out. Of particular note is TB, Irons and Parko all out at 8.00, in a competition that they have all won before.

The bookies are holding faith that Jordy Smith will keep the top end guys honest at the very least with odds for him at 17.00, whilst Dane Reynolds has slipped in the event betting out to 34.00.

At the "roughie" end of the market, there is signs that Adrian "Ace" Buchan is making big improvements after a checkered few years on the WCT. His performance at the Sunset comp last year and in small Snapper at the Quiky Pro were both impressive. One would think that the Bells bowl will suit his back hand attack and is some value at 81.00.

OK hope you back a winner at Bells this year.

Quiky Pro betting...no surprises

The first competition has come and gone with no real surprises either in the markets or results. Taj Burrow getting rolled mid comp hurt some of our punters, but those guys that backed favourites; Fanning and Slater, outright and in the heat betting didn't make a million, but are building a bank roll to use in the upcoming competitions.

One savvy punter, who I discussed last year, simply kept rolling his winning round by round into the next heat that Slater was surfing in. The upshot was this*:

*please note that the initial stake was not $100, but this is only used to easily discuss tis betting method.

I am sure this made for some fun, watching the heats live and having a punt throughout the day. I guess it shows you how much surf betting has grown that bookie such as  Sportsbet.com.au were doing a "bet till they are wet", option allowing you to get heat bets on until the very last few minutes before a heat.

Happy New Year and I hope you all got some waves over the chrissie period. I just got the latest Tracks mag which included the ASP 2008 mini mag. A good read and I can't wait to see the betting for the different events  this year.

The ASP mag made plenty of mention of Jordy Smith and his inclusion on the tour this year. After blitzing the QS in 2007, Zaffa and Aussie punters have been all over him and the markets have only been out for a week.  This year we have  Black Pearl Betting, a South African bookie, posting surfing odds with us. Their early reports are that they have laid so much on Smith, that you should be able to get good odds on the Fannings and Slaters as they wind out the odds to balance their books.

As well as South African Bookies supplying surfing odds this year, BetUs are also supplying odds. After the US govt. banned US residents from punting with overseas bookies in 2006, many US punters were left short, including those who liked to punt on surfing with the aussie bookies. Now that BetUs are on board - yes we will be displaying their odds as well - US users of Surfing-Odds can finally punt with a US Bookie!

At this stage the World title market looks to be as expected:

Mick Fanning	4
Kelly Slater	4.75
Andy Irons	7
Joel Parkinson	9
Taj Burrow	9
Jordy Smith	18

I think this year will see Parko have a real concerted dig at the title after seeing what is required to win one, after best mate Fanning won in 2007. At this stage I think that he is the only one of any real value.  Although if Jordy Smith wins on the Goldy, there will be some punters patting themselves on the back!

OK I will send my next report in when the odds for the Quiky Pro come out, catch you then!

Boz

2007 Reports

Euro Leg Betting report

Well no real surprises on the Euro leg. The favourites got up, however there were some big upsets along the way. AI was very short odds in both the heats where he went down and punters in the know, backed AI's oponents in these heats at odds of over 4.00 both times.

This leads me to the large odds available in heat betting. Heat betting is a two horse race (bar the 1st round, which I normally steer clear of). In Surfing, unlike football betting, there is a lot of variables which can determine a heat. We have seen Slater pull out some amazing escapes before, but he is one out of the box (I never bet on his heats).

If a pro has picked the wrong board for a heat and/or finds himself on the wrong end of a priority position, things can go awray very quickly, even for the top guys. It is because of this I recomend that you do up your own odds for the heats (before looking at the odds on surfing-odds). Then compare your odds to the odds on Surfing-Odds and if you see a market (regarldess of the surfer) that is over 20% of the market that you have set, then have a punt on that surfer.

Its a system that a grizzly old sportsmanager of mine told me about years ago. He put it this way :"Do you have confidence in your judgement of a sport and setting odds..if you do then back yourself." 

Speaking of systems, one of our surfing-odds email program members, sent me an email (the first one ..thanks Jeff) outlining a method of surf betting that he thought was much better than backing his favourite surfer straight out at the start of the competition.

His method was instead of backing a Mick Fanning straight out for $50 @ 5.00, he would put $10 on him in the 1st round and then roll the winnings from that into Fanning's next heat and the winning s from that into the next heat he is in and so forth.

I think there is some merit in it, however as those devout followers of the world tour betting will know it's only the aussie bookmakers that set markets for surfing. Often if a comp is on the other side of the world their market managers will miss entire rounds (due to them sleeping).

An example of this is Martinez at Mundaka. He was 11.00 to win the comp, however in the heat betting he only appeared in the round 1 and semi final heat markets due to one of his opponents not showing up and the markets not being set for the other heats he was in. Still I think that when the Aussie leg starts next year I might give it a try as the bookies then have all the markets ready on a bet til' their wet basis.

Anyways enough of my rambling on about systems, my hot tip for Brazil is TB, if you can get him at anything over 7.00 GET ON!

cheers

 Boz

Trestles Betting Report

As Mentioned by the boss of this site in the industry news I have been off surfing on the Goldy over the past 2 weeks, during which I missed a lot of the comp and the betting. However there were a number of significant odds posted (or not posted as was the case for the world title market) prior to the comp starting and during the head to head betting.

Lets start with the World Title Market and the Slater Factor. As eveyone knows Slater had won 8 world titles. What people forget is that not all of these titles were won with ease. Numerous times he has been up against any number of contenders ahead of him earlier in the season, with what appeared to be commanding leads...look at Danny Wills and Mick Campbell in 98. Bookies prior to Trestles believed Mick Faning to be in an unassailable position and didn't post a world title market, because of this. I think it is now fair to say that the market wil reopen in the next few days......and expect Mr Slater to be at least equal favourite!

When putting together the odds for Trestles, Jordy Smith stood out like dogs balls! The wildcard entrant (who is currently in the biggest sponsorship war the sport has ever seen) was in at a very short 31-41.00. This was justified as he went on to roll Parko in Round 2 and AI in Round 3 before being stopped by Ben Dunn and a shocking lack of waves in round 4. Of particular note was the head to head odds posted by Centrebet in his heat against Parko with Jordy being out at 3.35 to win the heat...great value!

J-Bay Betting Report

Some good variances in the betting for J-Bay and some very good value in the final result for those savvy enough to get on at the right price!

Firstly I think I shot the gun early in my Chile report re Bobby Martinez. Whilst he comfortably got through to round 4, he was beaten easily by Dean Morrison in tricky conditions. Better research on my behalf would have shown that no goofy has won there since Occy in the mid eighties!

Speaking of Goofies at J-Bay, Damo Hobgood was out at 21.00 with some bookies whilst others had him tighter at 12.00. He had scored a 2nd at J-Bay previously, but history was certainly against him.

Other notable variances included:

a. Dean Morrison at 21.00 with some books and out at 41-51 with others. Dingo was very unlucky in his semi against Slater, with some pundits claiming he was underscored on his last wave to lose the heat by a mere .07 points.

b. Danny Wills at 61.00 with some books, whilst other had him much tighter at 31.00. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but Danny Wills lords it on right hand point breaks and was always going to be a small danger. Again he was unlcucky to get pipped by Fanning in their quater final heat.

The opening odds for Fanning were incredibly short. This was justified by some by his previous wins here, but when the betting on him is 4.00, there are just two many variables for a bet at such short odds. Like my old Racing Manager used to say..take those odds and you'll end up in the river. In this case maybe in the line up with the same board you were hoping to upgrade with the winnings from this bet!

Speaking of value, Taj Burrow's best odds were at 11.00, but quickly shortened into 9.00. Whilst there have been queries over his mental fortitude at times, he kept his faithful in the money for J-Bay congrats to those of you who backed him.

Finally I will be including my comments re betting for each compettion prior to it starting, on the odds comparison pages, so keep an eye out for them when they go live!

Boz the Bookie

Chile Betting Report

A nice win by AI in Chile with best odds out there for him being 7.50, not bad for a 3 x world champ.

The Chile markets were defined by these 3 points:

1.  Fiji is gone but the wave in Chile was a left, a solid one.

This first point was sorely missed by some bookies that were happy to troll out the bog standard odds for the Chile competition. However there were two bookies (I won't mention them here) that altered their markets as soon as the wave was announced. The following changes occurred:

a. TB and Parko odds wheeled out (best odds at 12.00)

b. AI and Damo Hobgood tightened up, both guys at least 2 points shorter then elsewhere. Smart move as they were the finalists?

2.  Mick Fanning's commitment to patching up previous weaknesses

Mick Fanning has shown real determination this year to patch up the gaping holes in his act (see barreling lefthanders). You could have picked him up for 7.50 at some bookies, although the tightest out there was 5.50.  Prior to this year he would have been 21.00+ to win at Chopes and Chile. His track record this year suggests that if you get him for over 4.5 at J-Bay it will be a good bet.

3. The Bobby Martinez vs. Parko/TB factor

Bobby Martinez was already pretty tight considering his ratings at the time, however the same bookies that wheeled in AI and Damo Hobgood, wheeled in Martinez. The best out there for him in the Chile comp was 21.00, great value really. He was hugely unlucky with wave selection in his 10 point debacle heat against Fanning and could have easily won the heat and the rest of the comp. Martinez has a great package; forehand tube riding skills, smooth style, can opener type back hand carves and he cannot be counted out of any competition.

The reverse of this however applies to TB and Parko. Best Odds for both were 12.00, but this was a low ball move by the bookies. Taj was never going to be in the running with this heaving left and Parko, who looked good in the early rounds and on one right hander in his quarter against AI, was also going to struggle. Post this competition expect them to be wheeled out further for the world title market as they show once again that skills pay the bills, but don't win you the competition.

Happy Punting

Boz the Bookie

* If you can get Martinez for over 21.00 at J-Bay get on -Think ala Occy/country life comp in the 80's. Odds should be out soon so if you haven't already SIGN UP today.

Well the odds for the Chopes leg of the tour this year were as to be expected. Slater and AI were the shorties, with the Hobgoods and fellow Floridian Cory Lopez tight in the market. Things were looking to be as per normal with the Chopes specialists taking the crown, especially during the trials when there was very solid surf.

Things took a dramatic change though. Fanning, who landed 10 days prior to everyone else and who had previously performed terribly at Chopes, found himself into Round 3 and 4 with a dwindling swell. Whilst most bookies didn’t field past just a win market, this threw the mate between mate betting into disarray. Anyone watching the swell dry up during the mid rounds would have sensed that Fanning or one of the normal non performers at Chopes, i.e. Parko, Luke Stedman and a few other Aussies were in with a chance.

Big Luke Egan, got a reprieve from the ASP to extend the comp past its normal time frame as a half decent swell was on the horizon. When it hit he sent the finals out into it. Whilst being solid, it didn’t cause Chopes to bare its teeth, which again left the door open for the Chopes lesser lights.

The nail in the coffin for the Chopes performers appeared to be hammered home with AI and Slater getting knocked out in the quarters, by Parko and Flores respectively. To give you an indication of the rot, the bookies I spoke to reckon both AI and Slater should have been 1.40 or less against their opponents…. Unlucky they didn’t field on it.

The Final hit the water and it was Fanning vs. Hobgood. This market would normally be heavily favoured towards Damo Hobgood. Watching it live however, it was a pick ‘em comp, maybe even slightly favouring Fanning……..strange days indeed. As it turned out the Chope’s specialist Damo Hobgood snuck through in the dying minutes on a corker of a ride, proving that I am glad that I didn’t lay him with some of my American pals and that the planets were still aligned right as an Aussie didn’t win at Chopes......

 Happy Punting

Boz the Bookie