KELLY SLATER
Yep an obvious one.  Out of the last 3 years at Trestles Kelly has posted two firsts and a second.  In 3 years he has only lost one heat there, he pretty much owns the place.  Take it into account his form this year winning 4 out of 6 events so far and you have to ask yourself, gee how can he not win??  But maybe that might work against him; he’s done so well in the past that his luck has to run out sooner or later right?  Well with an average heat score at Trestles over the last 3 years of 15.9pts, which is a whole point higher than anyone else, it’s obvious, he just surfs the place better than the rest of the pack.  If you are betting on anyone to win, it’s gotta be Kelly, and I’d put money on him for every heat too.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Um…… maybe the ocean or some severe bad luck?

TAYLOR KNOX
After Slater, Taylor has the highest average heat score at Trestles over the last 3 years with 14.9pts.  Although his results don’t really reflect this with a 5th, 17th & 9th.  But take last year for example Taylor posted 16.67pts in his quarter final, which would have won him the other 3 quarters with ease, but unfortunately he was up against Slater who locked in 18.60pts.  He has the hometown advantage and that frontside hack is custom made for the Trestles rights.  Taylor never does well in left hand reef breaks and we have just had 3 of those so he is currently seeded 29th.  He’s not going to have an easy draw, so even big heat scores might not save him.  He’s not going to win the event, Taylor doesn’t win events.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
It will either take one of the heavy hitters like Slates, Taj, Mick or Parko or possibly old age might get him.  The oldest guy on the tour sure has been falling off a lot lately.

MICK FANNING
Trestles suits Micks surfing nicely, he’s was unlucky last year to come up against a rampaging Dane Reynolds who handed him a 17th, but in the two years previous he locked down a 5th & a 3rd with an average score over the past 3 years of 14.5pts.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Just like last year with Dane, if Mick comes up against Yadin Nicol in the early rounds, Yadin’s progressive style of surfing will make Mike’s trademark hacks look a little boring.  Otherwise I’d expect to see him in the semis.

BEDE DURBIDGE
Bede is the only other guy on tour to have won this event in the last 3 years, which means he’s the only guy to have beaten Slater at Trestles.  At the time I thought it was a bit of a fluke, but since then Bede has continued to lock down solid results, the guys even our current Pipe master!!??  Still I don’t see him getting a wave in a Taylor Steele movie anytime soon, why?  Because his surfing is kinda stiff and bland.  Still if you look at his heat scores at Trestles he has locked in an average of 14.4pts over the past 3 years.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Hopefully the judges, this guy belongs in the 90’s, people don’t want to see his formula style of surfing winning heats.

TAJ BURROW
Trestles is definitely the most high performance wave on the CT, and Taj was the high performance guy on the tour.  These days it Dane Reynolds, and he showed the changing of the guard by handing Taj a 33rd at Trestles last year, but Taj is the still the high performance guy that cares and knows how to strategize a heat so I’m picking him as the guy who might win if Kelly forgets to put fins in his board or something.  In 06 and 05 Taj locked in 3rds at Trestles, he’s solid.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Whoever faces him in the semis, Taj has lost the knack of making finals.

HOBGOODS
I always thought the Hobgoods were on an even par at any location, but I read recently that CJ does well at Trestles and Damo doesn’t.  I crunched the numbers and results wise CJ has a better record there, heck Damo didn’t even bother to turn up last year (I think he was inured).  But on average heat scores they are pretty even, Damo is actually slightly ahead.  So what does that mean?  It’s whichever Hobgood gets the slightly better run that will do well.  Unfortunately it’s usually one or the other, so it’s hard trying to bet on them, at the moment CJ is definitely having a better run of form.

WHO COULD BEAT THEM?
Anyone that can post a pair of 8’s.  The Hobgoods are A-class in left reefs, but everywhere else they are just consistent.  It’s not often they will lock down a heat score over 16pts if it’s not barrelling lefts.  Hobgoods are a good bet until round 4, then take it heat by heat depending on who they are facing.

JOEL PARKINSON
Parko seems to be a threat at any location.  He’s forever throwing down heat scores of 18+pts through the early rounds and he’s the most consistent surfer on the CT, the only guy that has made it past round 3 in every event.  But Parko’s style of surfing is not quite as suited to Trestles as Slater, Taj or Mick so I’d be surprised to see him in the final unless the surf is absolutely pumping like it was in 2004 when he beat Slater in the final in epic conditions.  Good for backing all the way to the quarters.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
The above 3 mentioned heavy hitters.

WHO ELSE COULD EARN ME SOME MONEY?
Well the above guys the safest money at Trestles, but if you are looking for a higher return on your investment these guys could be worth a punt.

DANE REYNOLDS
Dane finished 9th last year, knocking out Taj and Mick in the process.  He is the best surfer in world, and Trestles is the perfect wave to showcase his ability.  If he were a little more interested I’d throw some money on him to win the thing.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Whoever sits out the back and catches the 2 best waves that come through, I can just imagine Bede Durbidge doing it.  Dane has a tendency of just catching whatever comes through, I guess it’s because he doesn’t care.

TIMMY REYES
Timmy missed last year due to injury, but posted 9th in both 06 & 07.  He knows the wave well and it suits his surfing.  Good for another quarter final appearance.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
Timmy is a safe bet over any of the mid order, but he would have to have a blinder to beat the A-class.

CHRIS WARD
Yep, we’ve all seen the old Lost…. videos of Wardo tearing Trestles apart.  He was practically raised in the line-up there.  The cool thing is, he surfs his heats exactly like he’s shooting a video part, no holds barred.  He’s had some good results with a 9th, 5th & 33rd over the last 3 years.  But he has only beaten Raoni Monteiro, Trent Munro, Travis Logie, Taylor Knox and Pancho Sullivan at Trestles.  Catching the smaller waves doing airs and slides isn’t working on the big guns.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM?
The top 5 or a bad hangover after the Surfer Awards.

YADIN NICOL
Of the wildcards I’d be looking at Yadin Nicol to cause some upsets.  I just checked out his form in France and his last 3 heats he had posted 17.94, 17.56 & 19.33.  He is on fire, the wave suits his style nicely, he has the big moves the judges are looking for and he is an extremely confident kid, I expect him to step up.

WHO COULD BEAT HIM
Pretty much anyone, he’s an unproven wildcard, he could even get taken to school by a Robot like Ben Dunn, still worth a punt I reckon.

OTHER GUYS WORTH A BET
Tom Whittaker, Jordy Smith, Jeremy Flores, Adriano De Souza and Dean Morrison could be a good bet against the right opponent, but I probably wouldn’t back them if they were facing any of the previously mentioned favourites.  Jordy would be the only one I’d feel confident in backing against the heavy hitters.

WHO TO BET AGAINST

If you see the following guys in a head to head, bet on their opponent.

Bruce Irons has only made one heat in the past 3 years at trestles with an average heat score of 11pts. Sure Bruce can do huge moves, but he struggles to look interested when surfing a wave from start to finish. 

Tiago Pires is the only CT surfer to beat Slater this year, and he impressed in waves of consequence through the left reef leg of the tour.  But I think he’s going to get found out a Trestles.

Dan Ross was hyped as the new Margo.  In Hawaii maybe, but in head height surf he looks slow and old school.  But hey he has proved he’s kinda like Margo when it comes to successfully making heats (he doesn’t).

Neco Padaratz’s does not belong on the WCT.  His surfing is stuck in the 90’s and this will be no more apparent than at a high performance wave like trestles.  Even Shaun Thompson was writing him off at J-Bay.

I don’t know much about Jihad Khodr but every Internet surf analyst have him pegged as the worst surfer on the CT, so I’ll take their word on this one and jump on the band-wagon.

Nic Muscroft is the injury 1st alternate, he’s a solid surfer, but looks a little outclassed on the CT.  If he gets a start like he has 4 times already this year, expect the same result, a 33rd.